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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.