A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
